Study 01 · Chapter 8 exhibit
The DD Gap: 86% of qualifying hotels split 40+ points on return behaviour by price verdict alone.
86% of 81 qualifying hotels carry a gap of 40 points or more between how guests who call the stay "overpriced" behave and how guests who call it "worth it" behave, measured hotel by hotel, not pooled.
53.8ppmean gap · CI 51.3–56.4pp
54.1ppmedian · IQR 46.2–61.2pp
86%of 81 qualifying hotels clear 40pp
23.9–78.6pprange
Below 40pp threshold (14%)
At or above 40pp threshold (86%)
Per-hotel gap = overpriced-verdict churn minus worth-it-verdict churn, computed per hotel then aggregated across hotels. Qualifying = hotels clearing an n≥39 floor in both price-verdict cells (81 of 117 total). Churn = unlikely-return + will-not-return signal, read from guest text, not booking records; reported as intent, never a confirmed re-stay. 95% CI on the mean, Wilson method on proportions.
An ADR movement typically flows 70–80% to GOP and 55–60% to NOI (industry rule of thumb, not measured here). Asset value moves with NOI through the exit multiple. If the DD Gap sits on the "overpriced" side of an asset you are underwriting, size the lever in your own model: your ADR delta × your room count × your occupancy × the 55–60% NOI flow-through above is the annual NOI at stake before renovation, before repositioning, a retention envelope for your specific asset, not a number computed for you here.
Honest perimeter
Inference
Return is inferred from the guests' own words, not booking records. Reported as a signal of intent, never a confirmed re-stay.
Source
Public-review intelligence only: no PMS, no operator data, no guest PII. Public reviews are the whole input.
Cadence
A single, published read of the cohort as it stood at extraction. Not a live feed; a re-run against a fresher pull is a new, separately dated study.
Boundary
The cohort skews European and Portugal-heavy. Read as one well-read slice of the market, not a global law or your fund's own comp set.
Statistical floor
Wilson 95% confidence intervals on every proportion; a 39-review floor below which a rate is stated as directional, not precise.
Every number on this page re-runs from the same public review base on request. This exhibit is a fixed, dated snapshot; the live chapter may be re-run against a later pull.
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